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Talk:2017 Spring Event/@comment-31667592-20170404133413/@comment-31667592-20170405122158
I've updated the numbers where I think we agree on quantities. Let's get down to brass tacks: We agree on the following numbers: 1) Lanterns from the town hall collections: There are 21 days in the event with 10 lanterns for each collection so 21*10=210. 2) Lanterns from the first quest line: 539 3) Lanterns from the second quest line: 399 4) Lanterns from daily and quest trees (I previously excluded some trees by mistake): The total number of trees is 67 (26 first questline + 20 second questline + 21 daily). We will use your number of 2.7 lanterns per tree. 67*2.7=180.9. 5) Total lanterns thus far = 210+539+399+180.9=1328.9 Now let me clarify some of the calculations to follow: 1) It is assumed you will open one type of chest and only open that type of chest throughout the event (ie: you only open gold and never open bronze or silver). 2) No winning or losing streaks were included. This method simply takes the percent chances of winning prizes to determine expected outcomes. 3) Any lanterns missing from the calculations won't make any impact since if they are missing from bronze they are also missing from gold and silver therefore the results are relative. In other words, if I didn't include x lanterns from daily trees for bronze then x lanterns are not calculated for gold and silver either. 4) The calculations hash through every iteration of opening chests, acquiring lanterns from trees from opening chests, acquiring lanterns from the chests directly, etc. All calculations are based on the total number of lanterns acquired after all actions are complete. This is reflected in the "total lanterns acquired" line. 5) The line "% chance to get either daily or lantern prize" is the sum of the percent chance to win the daily and lantern prize from each chest. Example for the gold chest: There is a 25% chance to get the daily prize and a 12% chance to get the lantern prize so therefore you have a 37% chance to get one of those prizes every time you open the chest (25+12=37). 6) As far as rounding, some numbers were rounded since you can't open .3 of a chest. You either open the chest or you don't. The remainder is reflected in the "remaining lanterns" line. After updating the numbers per above here is the updated table: In the above, this doesn't guarantee you will get 3 daily prizes from the gold chest. This simply shows the average. Some people will be more or less lucky than others. These are the results that Inno expects. So, opening the gold chest should net you 3 daily prizes while opening bronze will net you 2.75. For the blossoms, gold will get you 80+120+40 of the grand prizes which is the rock and SoK plus 40 to the WW. Bronze will get you 80+115 which is the rock and just 5 short of the SoK. Perfecly planned to get you to spend diamonds to get the extra 5 blossoms. Is it just coincidence that you are short 1 bronze chest which is 40 lanterns which you can buy for 200 diamonds? I think not. Very well played by Inno. If my numbers are correct I should be able to make predictions. Let's take a look at how I faired. I've observed myself having fairly average luck in the game in general. I've only opened gold chests thus far. 6 chests total. I haven't gotten any lantern prizes yet but have gotten 2 daily prizes. At this point I should have expected 6*.37=2.22 of the daily and/or lantern prizes which is what happened. At this time I opened another chest (7 total now) and got another 20FP. So 7*.37=2.59 of the daily and lantern prizes. Still within average. The person above who got 7 daily or lantern prizes out of 10 chests opened is clearly the lucky one. They should have expected 10*.37=3.7 of those two prizes but instead doubled that. Awesome! There are people in my guild enraged about opening 5 chests and getting neither of those prizes when they should have expected at least 1: 5*.37=1.85. At the end of the day you are either average and break even, lucky or unlucky. To Inno it's all the same. The lucky ones will play more because they are excited and the unlucky will spend diamonds. I see the bronze chest as the instant gratification chest. I have lanterns therefore I have to spend them. This can be done often with the bronze chest. Saving for the gold chest requires patience which most people don't have. Someone is likely going to look at my numbers for the bronze chest and say "Oh! I can get 280.5 more lanterns by opening the bronze chest so it's better!" only to be disappointed with the results, likely never having 120 to spend on a single gold chest.